Balmy start to 2023 has Ontarians puzzled on where the cold air is
The start of 2023 has been a balmy one, to say the least, for residents in more than 90 per cent of the country including in Ontario.
While we head towards the coldest period of the year, climatologically speaking, Ontarians are probably asking the question: Where is the cold?
With the exception of the cold snap over Christmas and the days leading up to the holidays, much of southern Ontario experienced a fairly mild and gentle December, temperature-wise.
Normally for this time of year, temperatures are between -1°C to -2°C. However, closing out December, values of five to nearly 15 degrees above normal were reached.
It was particularly balmy on Dec. 30 when the daily maximum temperature was broken with a new tally of 13.1°C, surpassing the previous high of 10.2°C in 2019.
The last time the city of Toronto was near seasonal was on Dec. 27. Since then, above normal temperatures jumped us into 2023 and are expected to continue.
Long-range forecasts hint at a trend for more than two weeks above seasonal for the city, with the next best chance for seasonal temperatures to come during the middle of next week.
So, why has the pattern been so mild? A couple reasons.
The polar vortex and lobe of the coldest air is currently situated on the other side of the pole, positioned over Siberia.
This is where the majority of the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is currently locked, and looks to stay put for at least the next seven to 10 days.
The super-straight jet stream shooting across the Pacific Ocean into the U.S. West Coast is also contributing to the unusually mild stretch of weather.
During the winter, it is more common to have a more amplified jet stream where the dips and ridges allow for a fluctuation of temperatures, acting to usher colder air locked in across the pole to migrate south.
With ski resorts and avid outdoor winter enthusiasts holding their breath for some colder temperatures, when do forecasters expect a return to the classic Canadian cold in southern Ontario?
Mid-to-late next week might be our next chance to see temperatures return closer to seasonal, at least, which for Toronto is around -1°C to -2°C for this time of year.
Some forecast weather models are hinting that even chillier temperatures may arrive, but forecasters are skeptical this early out.
