Atlantic hurricane activity could pick up in time for Labour Day
It’s been a relatively quiet August across the Atlantic, but things should start heating up as the peak of the season fast approaches
Our latest lull in hurricane season may prove short-lived as forecasters expect an uptick in activity heading toward our upcoming Labour Day weekend.
The Atlantic basin has been uncharacteristically quiet this August in spite of forecasts of a very active season this year.
However, don’t let the pause draw you into a false sense of security—historically, about two-thirds of all tropical activity in the Atlantic unfolds after the middle of August.
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Dry air has calmed the season down—for now
Water temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean have reached record heights this year. This astounding heat deeply unsettled experts as we moved into hurricane season, lending confidence to predictions that we’ll see bustling activity this year.
We already saw what that ripping hot water is capable of supporting when Hurricane Beryl shattered records to become the earliest scale-topping Category 5 storm on record back in July.
But you can’t bake a sweet cake with just flour. Water temperatures are just one part of the equation that plays into the formation of a vigorous tropical cyclone. This precise mix of ingredients includes moist air, calm wind shear, and vigorous thunderstorms that serve as the seed from which a hurricane grows.
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Warm waters and calm winds have been abundant across the Atlantic this year. But intrusions of dry air from Africa’s Sahara Desert have put a lid on the oceanic basin for much of August. The only storm able to sneak through that hostile environment was Hurricane Ernesto.
Storms could develop heading toward Labour Day
We’re still in the first half of the season, though, and there’s more than enough time for things to heat up over the next couple of weeks. Historically, more than half of a typical hurricane season’s activity occurs after the middle of August.
Signs point toward more tropical disturbances rolling off the western coast of Africa over the next couple of weeks.
Given the very warm water temperatures and fewer intrusions of dry desert air, each of these clusters of storms could encounter opportunities to grow into a tropical system as they start to traverse the steamy waters of the central Atlantic Ocean.
Prepare for the peak of hurricane season now
As we approach the peak of hurricane season, it’s more important than ever to prepare now for potential impacts from tropical systems—even if you’re far inland away from the coast.
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Three of the five storms we’ve seen so far this season have affected Canada in some form. The remnants of Beryl and Debby brought heavy rains to the Great Lakes and Atlantic provinces. Ernesto took a swipe at Newfoundland’s Avalon Peninsula.
Ensure you have a hurricane preparedness kit and the supplies you’d need to deal with an approaching storm. Folks near the coast should have a plan in case evacuations are ordered. Batteries, flashlights, and charging packs are a must-have for potential power outages.
Hurricane season peaks during the second week of September and concludes at the end of November.
Header image of Hurricane Beryl courtesy of NOAA/CIRA/Colorado State.
